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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.